Dueling iPhone 5 Release Rumors; It's Like Daisy Petal Picking

It's coming in June; it's coming in June – not; it's coming in…..

Appleinsider's Neil Hughes says that rumors of a later-than-usual iPhone model revision for 2011 are being fueled by notoriously secretive Apple being even more secretive than usual in its dealings with overseas suppliers subcontracting to build the devices and their various components as regards the iPhone 5.

Hughes cites a note to investors by Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White, who is on a tech company visit sweep through Taiwan and China, commenting last Friday that "Apple is keeping its iPhone 5 cards extra close to the vest on this launch to avoid a falloff in iPhone 4 demand ahead of a refresh, especially given the February launch of the CDMA iPhone 4 with Verizon." However, White guesses there's still room for the iPhone 5 to still launch in June or July, consistent with Apple's usual calendar envelope for major iPhone announcements and revisions, and noting that there's really no solid evidence supporting either that postulate or a later iPhone 5 release in the fall.

TheStreet's James Rogers agrees with White, suggesting that with iPhone 5 rumors "ping-ponging" back and forth, the chatter, and in some instance angst, over a significant iPhone 5 release delay may be getting overblown.

On the other hand, Rogers notes — as I too have here previously — that Apple's press release for the June Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC), which in recent years has been a venue for iPhone revision announcements, made no reference to new hardware, a seemingly pointed omission, and affirmed instead that this year's WWDC will be focused on unveiling the future of iOS and Mac OS. Of course, we can't discount the possibility of a Steve Jobsian "one more thing" surprise announcement of the iPhone 5 at the keynote climax, whether or not the ailing (and we hope mending) Mr. Jobs is there to deliver it.

My takeaway is that while Apple's new and revised product releases are at least roughly predictable more often than not, attempting to pin them down to a precise time frame is a mug's game and an exercise in frustration and futility, compounded by the fact that from the moment the iPhone5 (launch of which is inevitable at some point in the not too distant future) is announced, new speculation will ramp up focusing on iPhone 6. Indeed, the iPad 2 announcement was still weeks in the future when prognostications about an iPhone 3 began circulating.

Waiting out anticipated product announcements can be frustrating, or part of the fun, depending on how you choose to look at it, but the upside is that current iPhone 4 is an excellent device that will do a fine job for you if you really need to make a purchase in the short term.